Canadian military planners in Afghanistan are making only the most preliminary studies of what needs to be moved, sold or thrown away for a 2011 withdrawal as part of a process that could still see a change in direction in the next six to nine months.

Gen. Walter Natynczyk, the country’s top soldier, was categorical in testimony this week that the military is planning a complete pullout from Afghanistan in response to the government’s interpretation of a motion passed by Parliament to end the mission in July 2011.

“We live on fact and we live on orders,” Gen. Natynczyk told MPs on the Commons defence committee.

However, while few Canadian politicians and generals may want to hear it, the almost universal view in Kandahar is that Canada will continue to have a military mission of some kind in Afghanistan post-2011.

There is a widespread feeling here and at National Defence Headquarters in Ottawa that Gen. Natynczyk has gone public in recent weeks about planning for the withdrawal in order to focus politicians on Parliament Hill on what, if anything, Canada intends to do in Afghanistan when the current mandate expires.

As “daunting” as the withdrawal is, to quote Gen. Natynczyk, it is clear that formal plans to withdraw, transform or scale back the mission do not actually have to be in place until next summer at the earliest. The removal of the first loads of Canadian gear from Kandahar is unlikely to begin before Christmas of next year.

Many factors have influenced what soldiers in Kandahar say about a “drop dead” date for a final decision on the future of the Afghan mission.

For example, the military normally identifies which troops will be assigned to Afghanistan about 12 months before they deploy, with intensive formal training for the mission beginning about six months before their departure.

About 12 months ahead is also when charter aircraft and ships would need to be booked to move home a staggering amount of materiel, but even this date could be pushed back a few months if penalties were paid to transport firms.

Canada’s task force currently numbers about 2,800, including some 300 troops who provide logistical support from a base in the Middle East. When Canada’s combat mission ends, the 1,250-member battle group will almost certainly go home.

But occasional hints from the Harper government and even the Liberals suggest perhaps 900 or 1,000 troops could remain in a scaled-down mission when the combat deployment ends.

There is rampant speculation here that such a reduced force will include the 300 troops at the provincial reconstruction team in Kandahar City, and several hundred support troops based elsewhere.

Gen. Natynczyk has been emphatic that all Canadians, including those guarding and assisting the reconstruction team, would quit Afghanistan by the end of that year.

But last weekend, Ben Rowswell, Canada’s top diplomat in Kandahar, confirmed to Canwest News that the team, which assists Afghans with economic development and governance issues, will continue after July 2011.

If the reconstruction team stays, there would be a hurdle to be overcome because rules governing Canadian civilians working in Afghanistan specifically prohibit them from leaving their compound without an armed escort of Canadian troops.

Read more: http://www.nationalpost.com/scripts/story.html?id=2332283#ixzz0ZlRIoeX8
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